Kentucky.

Tonight I'm Laura Rogers.

Thank you for joining us.

We're on the eve of the 2026 general election here in Kentucky.

Thousands of voters have already cast their ballots for the first time in 16 years.

Kentuckians will elect a new U.S.

senator.

There will also be a new face representing Kentucky's sixth Congressional district, a contest that has become competitive races in the state.

Down ballot.

Several state legislative races could bring new faces to Frankfort for the 2027 Kentucky General Assembly, which is now just two months away.

Here to help us make sense of it all we have in our Lexington studio, Casey Crosby, co-chair of the Republican National Committee.

Morgan Eaves, executive director of the Kentucky Democratic Party.

Robert Benvenuti, the Republican Party of Kentucky.

And Kate Woodhall, partner at Commonwealth Alliances and a former senior advisor to former Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear.

As always, we want to hear from you.

You can send your questionsand comments through X at Pub Affairs KET.

Send an email to KY tonight at ket.org or use the web form at ket.org/ky.

Tonight, you can also call us at We welcome all ofyou here.

Thank you somuch for spending your election eve with us, and we look forward to getting your perspectiveon so many different races.

It's an exciting time, that's for sure.

And Morgan, I want to begin with you because nationwide Democrats signal that they feel very confident about tomorrow.

They are predicting this blue wave.

How are Kentucky Democratsfeeling >> Kentucky Democrats are feeling really energized, really confident that we will not only help Democrats retake the U.S.

House with the sixth Congressional District right here in Lexington, but we will flip races and seats up and down the ballot.

We are outvoting Republicans in terms of early voting.

The week before the election, we out registered the week before the registration registered Republicans.

So we feel confident the momentum is on our side.

And we think voters will get out and vote blue up and down the ballot.

>> Robert Republicans do maintain a stronghold in Kentucky.

We are a deep red state.

Do you think that tomorrow will be better than expected for Republicans, particularly in the Bluegrass State?

>> Absolutely.

And there's no doubt we'll maintain our supermajorities in House and theSenate.

That's directly attributable to the fact that our policies and our leadership is exactly what Kentuckians.

The vast majority of Kentuckians want.

And I don't believe at all, not for a minute thatthere'llbe any material change in that when we wake up Wednesday morning.

>> President Trump won Kentucky by a wide margin in 2024, more than 30 points.

Do you think he maintains Crosby?

Do you think he maintains that support two years later, his national approval rating has dropped?

Are you seeing an erosion of confidence in the president in Kentucky?

>> No, not at all.

People understand that the country is much better under Republican leadership,and people have decisions to make.

I mean, if they want lower taxes, a secure border and safe communities, they are better Republican leadership.

And so Kentuckians, Republicans are rallying.

And we feel very good abouttomorrow, particularly with our federal races.

And like Robertsaid, we have no there's no chance we're going to lose our Supermajorities.

>> Kate, let's talk about some of the issues that you think are driving voters to the polls.

We have cost of living affordability.

Those are some of the thingsthat we're hearing about when we talk to voters on the campaign trail.

As journalists,artificial intelligence, the Iran war are those things that you think are important to voters as they head to the polls?

What else would you add to that list?

>> Well, I think that the most important thing you just said is affordability.

I think that people expect their leaders to make their lives better.

And I don't think their lives have been better since Donald Trump has been reelected to the office of president.

He has escalated prices, gas prices, through tariffs, through the Iran war.

And I think in itself is going to drive people to the ballot box tomorrow in Kentucky and nationwide, because they expect and deserve a leader who is going to put the citizens first.

>> Well, we are already seeing a high turnout or a pretty good turnout for early voting.

We mentioned you said you've seen long lines at the polls, and we did talk to Secretary of State Michael Adams today about becauseeven though tomorrow is election day, many Kentuckians have already cast their ballot.

And Secretary of State Adams says more than 370,000 people took advantage of the three day early voting period.

That is up more than 100,000 voters from the 2022 midterms.

We sat down with Secretary Adams to discuss the trends that he's seeing.

>> Now.

The big question is, does that mean the turnout is going to be that much higher, or does votes?

And the votes that used to be cast on Tuesday get cast on Thursday, Friday or Saturday?

It's too difficult to say right now.

I do expect a good turnout in this election.

I will tell you right now, we're seeing higher turnout in rural areas or smaller counties compared to Jefferson, Fayette, Jefferson, Fayette are doing fine, but actually Warren and Hardin, the next two biggest counties have had higher turnout than Jefferson and Fayette.

My prediction this cycle is it's the theturnout.

The Senate race has been kind of sleepy.

Not a lotof interest in that one.

And so it's really the county races that are driving the turnout.

Ifyou recall, from the primary in May, we had 18 county judge executives get beat inthe primary.

There's a lotof froth in the middle of the ballot.

People are certainly more tuned in to Washington than they used to be, but they haven't They live in a county and they live in a city, and they have governments.

There.

And you've had a lot of controversy with data centers and other local issues that's driving turnout.

So right now we're having higher turnout in those counties that have interesting local races.

I can't tell you why, but Republicans tend to vote late.

They tendto vote on Tuesday instead of during early voting, disproportionately.

So they may close that gap.

Right now they're votes statewide.

To me, the most interesting thing this election isthe others, the independents and third party voters are voting at a higher proportion than Republicans or Democrats.

16% of them have votedalready.

I can't remember an election in my lifetime where independents outvoted Democrats and Republicans.

>> Yeah.

So, Robert, I'd In Moore voter registration among independents, and they are turning out to vote early.

What do you make of that?

And do you think that that could be effective for your party?

And what are you doing to reach out to attract the support of independent voters?

>> Look, I think it'sgreat, right?

Everybody shouldvote.

A lot of a lot of lives have been sacrificed for the freedoms we have.

So absolutely everybody should get Right.

I hope you vote formy team, but I justwant you to vote first and foremost.

It's our obligation as citizens.

I think independents are going to buy a significant proportion vote with Team Republican.

And I'll tell you why.

I think that they are the folks thattend to sit backand watch and listen and break kind of late in the game, if you will, for one side or the other.

And though you know, you've already heard it tonight about how, how gas prices are up, etc.

well, sure, they're up, but let's talk about thewhy and let's talk about how much they'reup.

Thereare still much less than under the Biden administration.

People don't want to go back to the Biden administration.

People don't want open borders.

People don't want disrespect forlaw enforcement or lawlessness.

They Republican conservative policies.

And when you look at the why behindgas prices under the Trump administration, and remember, they were down much further, now they have bumped up.But again, still not surpassing where they were under President Biden.

And when you look at the why, let's look at the why for both the Trump administration and Biden administration,the why under theTrump administrationis, is because a nuclear threat identified in Iran and action needed to be taken.

And that action will prevent our children, our grandchildren, from facing a nuclear powered Iran, which, by the way, PresidentBiden and President Obama funded.

And that's clear.

The why under the Biden administration was it was an intentional, willful attack on Americans.

They did not like you driving your vehicle.

They did not vehicles in particular.

They wanted to drive everybody towards electric vehicles, which was really a true farce because the grid certainly couldn't support it anyway.

And Americans should get tochoose what kind of car they want to drive.

So you have one in which gas prices are up for for national security purposes, and youhave the other situation under Biden, where gas prices were up higher than ever as a punishment to people, you will comply with our green energy policy, or we will punish you through high prices.

And, you know, Joe Bidenand Democrats destroyed our energy independence.

Donald Trump has had to rebuild that energy independence.

And if he hadn't, and if hehadn't done it so quickly, gas prices would be much, much higher.

So it's painful, but it's temporary.

And it's and it's for a national not to punish the American people like it was under the Biden administration.

>> Whatis your response to that?

Do you think that's how voters see it?

>> I think when independents, Republicans, Democrats go to the gas pump and they see that above $4 a gallon when farmers go up to fill their tank and with diesel and it's above 650 a gallon, I don't think they're thinking, wow, this is temporary.

for national security.

Thank God.

I think they're thinking about why am I paying the highest diesel price in history?

Why am I paying, you know, one of the highest gas prices in history?

I don't think they're thinking about these far fetched justifications.

They're thinking about nobody is looking out for me.

Nobody is advocating for me.

Nobody is making sure to go to the doctor and pay my electric billand pay for groceries.

Right now.

You know, Kentucky farmers havepaid more than $39 million more in diesel prices.

Andthey say that becauseof the war in Iran.

You know, 70% say they can't afford fertilizer, $2,500 is the what is the average cost that Kentuckians have paid because of the war in Iran in terms of extra inflation and prices?

They're not thinking about the again, far fetched justification.

They just want leaders that advocate for them.

And again, it doesn't matter if they're independents, Republicansor Democrats, they want to send people to Washington, to Frankfort, to their local city council, who will advocate for them and give them a moreaffordable life, regardless of whatever Republicans try to justify those reasons >> I know we're hearing a lot of this debate in the sixth Congressional District, and that is the big race.

I want to talk a little more specifically about that, because really, this is expected to be an early indicator tomorrow night of how races will go nationwide.

And this has been deemed a toss up race.

Do you think that Doctor Ralph Alvarado, Miss Crosby, do you think that he can keep this seat Republican?

>> Absolutely.

I believe wholeheartedly to keep this Republican.

Andy Barr has been a phenomenal congressman for us.

And Ralph Alvarado is going to be just like Andy Barr, 2.0.

I mean, he's going torepresent his constituents very well.

He is independent.

He has his own record.

He has been a physician forover30, over 30 years and has served many members of the community as their physician.

I want to go back to something Morgan said a minute ago, because people do expecttheir elected officials to have solutions and talk about the issues and all we haveseen from the Democrats is, and I think my friend Scott Jennings said it best, is they dug a big hole under Biden, and now all they're offering is to bring the shovels back.

They're not really offering any solutions to any of these problems.

It's just Republicans are bad.

And they put us in this mess, but they'reoffering no And I think Robert very eloquently laid out the case for why we were in the situation we'rein.

We took over a big mess, and sometimes it takes timeto fix all these problems.But as far as the sixth district goes, Ralph Alvarado is going to win tomorrow.

I was very encouraged by what I just heard with Secretary Adams talking about the voter turnout in the early voting.

When you hear that Republicans areonly 10,000 votes across the state, and we know historically, Republicanscome out and vote on Election Day, that is very good news for the Republican Party of Kentucky.

>> Do you think that Democrat Zach Dembo that he has been effective in and explaining the policy that he would like to enact if he does go to Washington asopposed to just deflecting from the other side?

>> Sure.

I think Zach Dembo has done a phenomenal think that he will be he will be successful tomorrow, and I think that he will be thenext congressmanfor the sixth district, and lots of reasons for that.I think he particularly onhealth care and affordability around health care.

I mean, HR one, which was Donald Trump's signature achievement, what he calls his signature achievement is driving up costs across not only the Commonwealth, country on health care insurance is taking.

It's likely to take people off Medicaid and to possibly close hospitals.

So all of those things, you know, Dimbo has been focused on trying to reverse some of those very, very problematic policies that have that were passed during the last two years.

And I think that that is that issue, along with affordability, along with holding Trump accountable the war in Iran, which has claimed the lives of 21 Americans, including two Kentuckians up until this point, and holding him accountable on tariffs, which has not been mentioned so far.

But that is largely driving the cost for farmers and for many consumers and many citizens.

And what's really causing grocery prices to escalate, and others and very few people, I think, on either the tariff policy that Donald Trump has,has put forward and is refusing to back off of regardless.

Andit's been very detrimental to our farmers, to our bourbon industry and others.

AndI think because of all of those things, Zach Dembo will be successful tomorrow.

>> If the president senses that thetariffs have been unpopular, why do you think he he is steadfastand he good for the country's economy in the long run.

What is the argument there?

>> I mean, he has been very clear that he's always going to put America first and has put Americafirst and that, you know, other countries should be paying their fair share.

Look at pharmaceuticalprices.

I mean, we are paying, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars morethan other countries are for drug, you know, for drug prices.

And it's an unfair advantage.But when you look at the tariffs what it has done for reinvestment into America,it has been crazy to look at what hasbeen created, you know, from the tariffs.

And yeah, sometimes there is some short term hurt with these things.

But Donald Trump has been very clear that he's going to put Americafirst and back to Zach Dembo.

I think it's almost laughable.

I mean, this is a guy who's an empty suit and has said in his own words, he can't keep a job.

He has a horrible record at the Department of Justice with andit's laughable to think that he cancome in and think that he's going to be able to do better than a physician who has served this community, who has 30 years of experience at fixing health care.

>> A race likethis, that is that is so tightly contested.

I mean, what does move the needle here?

You're appealing to both rural and urban voters.

Morgan.

What what do you think it's what is driving voters to the polls and what is helping them make their decision, who they're going to vote for?

>> Yeah, I'm from Madison County, whichin the sixth CongressionalDistrict is probably going to be the bellwether county because it has some of that more urban.

If you want to call Richmond that and the more rural piece and you know, it has that mix of Democratic, Republican and independent voters and what I'm seeing and hearing from folks not only in Madison also in similarly situated counties across the district, is affordability.

Again, they want to be able to afford gas, groceries, electric bill.

They want to be able tohave quality, affordable health care.

And under the Republican administration of Donald Trump and his his majorities in the House and Senate, they have not been able to keep all of those things.

They are paying more, getting less.

And it's getting harder and harder every day.

And, you know, someone like Ralph Alvarado,I would not say that someone who has a history of working for nursing homes that have really disgraceful histories, not only legally, but also medically, that they're going ina position to fix health care.

Zach Dembo is Zach Dembo isout there making his case to voters, and they are responding tohim because he is genuine.

He is a career public servant, and he is talkingto them about the issues that matter, chiefly affordability, chiefly health care, chiefly creating a better, more affordable life that they can sustain and not just have to listen to people say, oh, this is all temporary.

It'll get better.

Just giveus more time.

They think they're out of time, and they're ready to elect new leadership.

And Zach Dembo is going to be >> Do you have a response to that?

>> Well, look, there's no doubt in my mind that Ralph Alvarado is going to prevailtomorrow night.

It's an open seat.

So there's a lot of excitement aboutit.

That's a good thing, right?

We like that.

But the reality of it is, is, is that I don't think in any way whatsoever that the voters in the sixth district are going to say, we like what we had during Joe Biden, because going to get, what all Americans are going to get if the if the federal House and theSenate Phillip you're going to go back to even more radical policies.

Imean, it'sgoing to be the Joe Biden policies on steroids.

And, you know, it's interesting to me that you have a lot of Democrats across the country running.

Zach Dembo is one of them who wants to portray himself moderate, bipartisan guy.

But, you know, just like the rest of them when they get to Washington, they will bow and curtsy to the radical left.

The AOC and the Chuck Schumer's and those policies are very, very dangerous for Kentucky.

And they're simply not policies that Kentuckians want.

They had those under the Biden administration.

It was a mess.

And the irony it.

I almost have to I've heard it several times tonight.

The irony of the left, where they say, hey, we literally burn down the economy.

We destroyed our energy, America's energy independence.

We let the streets burn.

Literally.

Riots and we defunded the police.

And we had wide open borders.

And that's good for Kentuckians.

No it's not, and I haven't heard one Democrat candidate be able explain how those policies, which they all cheerlead for and are committed to and have pledged to benefit Kentuckians in any way whatsoever.

>> Now, the defund the police.

I know that that has been messaging from some, but was there a policy that was enacted that you feel like was effective in doing and taking money away from law enforcement?

>> Absolutely.

And you hear it over and over and over and again.

What, what you have.

And, you know, look, when you're running and you have no political record, you can make yourself anything you want to be.

But the fact of thematter is, is that Zach Dembo is going to go to Washington and he's goingto do whatever AOC tells him to do.

And that's just the reality.

And AOC's policies, which I'm not going to continue to repeat because Idon't want to bore people, important, is all the things that Kentuckians vote strongly against.

That's why wehave supermajorities in the House and Senate, because Kentuckians like Republican leadership and like Republican policies.

>> I want to follow up on that because this has been a big campaign theme.

I'venoticed this election cycle, an ad running on my home district.

It's common sense versus communism.

And I want to give youall a chance to respond that.Is that a fair assertion?

Is that how you see it?

>> Those are scare tactics, Laura.

You know, when when you're using those words that people maybe don't don't fully understand because we're lucky enough to have not seen them in action inthis country.

It's the boogeyman.

When you have universal ratings that are in the tank, when 95% of Americans disapprove of our president's performance, when the majority of Americans believe that there's an affordability crisis again, when people cannot afford the basics, when 80,000 Kentuckians have lost food assistance under the Trump administration, including 30,000 seniors and children, when 50% of foreign farm bankruptcies are up under this administration, when 200,000 Kentuckians are facing losing health care because of the Republican policies under the.

One big,beautiful bill, you got to do something.

And the best thing that youcan do when youdon't have the message and you don't have the people on your side, is to scarepeople.

AndI think it's shameful.

It really is, because Americans and Kentuckians deserve leaders who are going to go to bat for them, who are going to create a more affordable life for them.

And the reality is, all those statistics I just named are not some dystopian hyperbole.

It's it's the and Americans, and they deserve leaders who are going to talk to them straight and not try to scare them just to keepdoing what they've been doing.

>> We have a question from a viewer.

This isShannon from Rowan County.

She says, why hasn't there been much conversation about corruption and trading among elected officials?

Doesthe panel anticipate an ethics bill will be introduced to issues?

I'm not sure who wants to take that one.

>> You know, Zach Dembo, that's part of hisplatform is that he wants to ban trading for members of Congress.

And I think it's worth mentioning that he wants to do thatunder a president like Donald Trump, who has enriched himself and his family.

More than $2 billion while he's in office.

If we don't need an ethics bill under Donald don't know what we need, but because we he is the sort of the definition of corruption.

And there are a lot of people goingalong with him.

And so we need folks like Zach and other Democrats in there to, to pass some guardrails to make sure that people can't enrich themselves at the taxpayer expense.

>> Casey do you want to respond to that?

>> Yeah, I don't even know where to start.

I mean, I think it's shameful using scaretactics.

When you look at the Democrat Party nationally, they are at the lowest ratings they have ever been inhistory, like 37%.

So to be this shining example of what people acrossthe country expect from their party, I don't thinkyou're in a position to really be in a situationto brag about that and to say that we're using scare tactics, tactics.

I mean, the fact of the matter is the Democrat themselves up to the Democrat Socialists of America, and we see across the country over 120 Democrat socialists running top to bottom.

We have a guy running for U.S.

Senate seat in Michigan who can't even distance himself from his number one campaign surrogate, Hassan Piker, who says that Americans deserve nine over 11.

That is what shameful and disgraceful.

>> I want to move to the CongressionalDistrict, because this is also a race of interest.

We saw Congressman Massie lose his May primary to Ed Gallrein, whowas the president's choice for this seat.

Tens of millions of dollars poured into this race.

And it was considered a pretty bitter primary.

Is there any concern that Massie supporters will stay home this election, leave that race blank?

Do you think they'll get Ed Gallrein?

>> I absolutelydo, because look, there, conservative folks by nature, and I don't think in any way whatsoever they want to interfere with what all that the Republican Congress and President Trump have done.

You know, think about the reindustrializationof this country by President Trump.

Trillions of dollars in new manufacturing investment.

I mean, just today, for example, Sean O'Brien, president of the Teamsters Union over, what, 1.3 million people he represents.

And he comes out and says, I just voted for a Republican because their policies work.

You know, if if the head of the Teamsters is coming out publicly and saying who he voted for in his congressional race in Florida, that really tells you something.

Andthat's a strong signal that manufacturing what what President Trump across the country have done to reindustrialize America in just two years is phenomenal.

And Kentuckians have benefited from that for GE Corning, Apple expansion at Toyota, all those things.

That's only possible because of Republican policies.

And and to Casey's point earlier, I think Donald Trump has been very effective at using tariffs in a very smart way to force good for America.

And then what do you see?

You see a backing off of those those tariffs.

I mean,that's why that'show he's lowered drug prices for Americans by 70 to 90% is because he told other countries we're no longer Americans through their prescription drug prices are no longer going to foot the bill for all these other countries, because that's exactly what was happening.

Well, they didn't want to do that.

They theirfair share.

So he threatened them with high tariffs.

And what what did that bring?

That brought a huge reduction, 70, 90% reduction in drug costs for Americans.

You know,that's putting American policy first.

I don't remember any Democrat doing that.

>> Is there a perception that Democrats are losing the support of unions?

>> I don't think so.

I think that unions continue to support democratic was at a labor rally earlier this week, and they.

>> The chair of the DNC.

>> With the chair of theDNC.

>> He showed up.

>> Somewhere and we it was a great crowd, great enthusiasm, andthey've been knocking on doors in Kentucky and nationally for Democrats.

And I think that, again, that goes back to Democrats actually look at what union members.

But also citizens of country are really looking at this election cycle, which is what what is making their lives better every day and what is, is not.

And, and, you know, goingback to prescription drug prices, you know, health care overall, the cost is escalating.

So astronomically that that it's not, I mean, you know, lowering prescription drug prices is great.

But when all therest of escalating at a rate that people can't keep up with and they can't pay their premiums and they can'tpay their deductibles.

I mean, I think people are just fed up with that type of mindset.

>> Respectfully, I think that's another great example of the arsonist complaining about the firefighter not putting the house fire out quick enough.

Who burned down our health care system.

And that has consistently driven up prices, as I said, routinelywhen I was in the House, you know what Obamacare was going to do and continue to do to drive costs up to separate patients from doctors and to put Kentuckians and Americans in a situation in which the government was de facto controlling their health care.

And that's exactly what's happened.

And, you know, that's not brain intended.

Right?

That's exactly what's happened.

Then the Democrats come inand say,the Republicans are responsible for that.

Really?

How is that?

I'd like to know how that is.

They were the ones thatpromised free health care for everybody.

And I talked to a lot of union folksand have folks, friends in unions.

And I'll tell you what,they're scaredto death of is what the Democrats are pushing andsay that they will absolutely deliver if they're elected.

And that is, quote unquote, Medicare for all.

Well, you know what?

Those folks have premium health insurance policies through their employers, and theydon't want to lose those.

And that's exactly what's going to happen.

So that's why you're going to see the union vote shift even more so to Republicans.

We're already getting there.

You saw that two years ago in Donald Trump'selection.

But but we're going to continue.

And we have continued to convince union members to to vote Republican becauseit's in their best interest.

>> Well, back to the fourth congressional race.There are twoother candidates inthat race.

There's a libertarian and a Democrat, the Democrat in the race, Melissa Strange.

She cited a poll at one point that she was only one point Did that bring you some encouragement that she could really surprise people and pull off an upset in that district and get more votes than people thinkshe could do?

>> Absolutely.

I mean, I think the poll is pretty accurate, to be honest.

I think that there is a divided Republican Party in Northern Kentucky.

I think that there's some vast differences of opinions, but I also think that Melissa Strange offers kind of a unique perspective.

She is from agribusiness and she is has that history, and she does have ideas about how to to help farmers and help move those policies to a place that are more sustainable.

And, and helps benefit them.

And that's not just for NorthernKentucky, that's across Kentucky and across the nation.

And I think that is compelling to the voters inNorthern Kentucky.

And, and I think going to see a much closer race than people expect up there.

>> President Trump did rally for Ed Gallrein in Northern Kentucky,and Congressman Andy Barr in his Senate race.

And were you encouraged by the support that you saw for the presidentthere?

What did you make of the rally?

>> Absolutely.

I mean, it was a great success.

It always is.

I mean, there's a reason why PresidentTrump's been flying all over the country for the last 30, 45 amazing.

He has the stamina to do that.

But it's because there are a lot of voters out there who historically only have voted when President Trump's on the ballot.

So Ithink President Trump isis very wise to say, pretend I'm on the ballot.

And quite frankly, if those folkscome out, that that will be the bellwether, I believe, more than any individual race.

>> And that brings me to another questionthat we received historically, the party in power doesn't do well in midterms.

What's the case for whythis time might be different?

>> Well, as Robert said, President Trump is out energizing our base and talking about why America is better under Republican leadership.

Andthere's no bettermessenger than President Trump for our party.

And there's noone better to go out and get our voters energized to get out vote.

And we know if the Republicans show up, we will win these elections.

And so that's what President Trump and Vice President Vance have been doing, crisscrossing the country.

It's been all hands on deck.

And in the fourth district specifically, you know, they talkedabout our party being fractured.

I can say I have never seen unity in our party like I see right now.

And it starts at the very topwith our presidentall the way down.

We have been rowing the boat in the same direction, making sure that we in a position to defy history and win these midterms.

>> Let's talk about the U.S.

Senate race.

This is heavily favored for Congressman Andy Barr, but Charles Booker, he has you said, DNC Chair believe Ken Martin was here last week.

He has received some high profile endorsements in the last few days.

He maintains he has a path to victory.

Tell us more about this race and what it would take progressive Democrat across the finish line in a Kentucky Senate race.

>> Yeah, I think it would take just voters showing up, voters showing up at the rate that they have been for earlyvoting.

We're alreadyseeing more Democrats than Republicans in terms of early turnout, and I think that will continue through Election Day.

And if it does, Charles Booker will be in a great position to flip that seat.

Blue, which will Democrats achieve a majority in theU.S.

Senate.

Along with, like I said earlier, Zach Dembo in the U.S.

House, that would be a big, big day for Kentucky having a Democratic senator for the first time in decades.

Charles has a really unique perspective.

He kind of represents the American dream.

He's the child of ministers.

He understands what it's like to maybe have have an affordability maybe having to go without.

And he's really inspiring to a lot of people.

He's out connecting with folks about the things that they that they care about, aboutthe things that matter to him.

And Andy Barr is out there just kind of saying, yeah, I'll do exactly what Donald Trump tells me todo.

Despite sort of like Ralph Alvarado changing his messaging.

You know, he was Maga until primary.

And like Ralph Alvarado inthe sixth CongressionalDistrict after the primary, they tried to wipe a lot of those Trump references off their social media, off their website, out of their language, out of their ads.

And so I think that shows that somebody like Andy Barr, who I know a lot of people favor, but that they're scared because they understand someone like Charles Democratic candidates offer a better perspective and a better path forward for the American people.

>> Do you think, Congressman Barr and and Doctor Ralph Alvarado, arethey wanting to distance themselves from the president?

Oh, go ahead, I'll give you Casey you take.

>> That one at all.

I mean, the fact that Morgan is saying that, you know, Ralph Alvarado has completely changed his messaging.

No, he hasn't changed his messaging.

He supports on overtime, no tax on Social Security.

That's a president's signature bill right there.

The workingfamily tax cuts.

And that has helped, you know, hundreds of thousands of Kentuckians.

I was in a restaurant I know about a week or two ago in Lexington, and I was talking to awaitress and she was telling me about what that has meant to her pocketbook tohave that no tax on tips.

We've talked alot tonight about public Many of our police departments are shorthanded, and they have to work.

These officers have to work overtime, and now they're notbeing taxed on overtime.

That is money in their pockets.

Andso Ralph has not changed his position.

What happens during a primary when you are in a Republican primary, you are messaging to one group of people, and then you go into a general election messaging.

But to say that he President Trump from his website and his messaging is just a little disingenuous.

There are still pictures up.

Everybody knew who he was endorsed by.

And so it was just more general campaign type messaging.

>> So he was notably absent from that Trump rally we talked about earlier.

Yeah.

>> He wasn't in his district.

>> Didn't make it thatday.

And I also want to point out the no tax on tips and overtime is not permanent.

It's in law, unlike the massive corporate tax breaks that were also included in the one big, beautiful bill.

>> If I could, it will be permanentlaw.

If you reelect Republicans.

If you don't, these folks have already told you it's going away.

So for the patrol officer, for the for the food service worker, all those folks who rely on overtime and or tips, that's a huge And, you know, my family loves it when we're out to eat.And I ask the waiter or waitress, hey, what do you what do you think about no tax on tips?

And what did that mean to you last year?

And it'sincredible.

Thousands and thousands of dollars.

So these folks want to talk about affordability, but yet they want to come in and snatch that hard earnedmoney back from Kentuckians andfrom Americans.

>> And if it was they would have made it permanent.

If you wanted those people to havethat affordabilitypoint, if you wanted them to keep those thousand dollars in their pocket, youwould have made that permanent, just like you made the corporate tax handouts permanent.

>> Every single Democrat voted against it.

And Zach Dembo goes in and tries to act likehe's going to extend this.

Every single Democrat voted against it.

And Zach Dembo is not to go in and go against every single Democrat in his party with a vote like that, period.

>> And that's the one big, beautiful bill in general that you're talking.

But I do believe there has been some bipartisan support for some of those initiatives in the bill.

Would you agree with that, Kate?

>> I agree, I mean, some of those issues around tips, taxes on tips and taxes on overtime.

I don't really think that those are necessarily Partizan.

I think they're generally enjoyed bipartisan support.

I think they to get someDemocratic votes on that bill.

And the end result was the bill as a whole was so problematic and was going to cost the American people so much money and health care affordabilitywas going to become almost impossible for any normal American to, to achieve that, they that Democrats voted against it.

And Ithink against the bill as a whole.

But those policies, Ithink they enjoy bipartisan support.

And I think it's probably disingenuous to say that Democrats don't support those ideas.

>> They didn't vote for them.

You show your supportthrough how you vote.

>> Aside from these congressional races that we've been diving into, there are also some state legislative races, and some of these are thought to be competitive.

Either they are an open seat or maybe Republican that is facing a strong Democratic challenger.

One of these races would be in Senate District six, state Senator LindseySkinner is being challenged by Democrat Christian Fuhrman.

And in this race, again, this is Senator Tichenor's first term.

This will be her first chance or first time running for reelection.

What about Christian Fuhrman has made her astrong Democratic challenger for Senator Tichenor.

>> She is a fundraising powerhouse.

I mean, she has outraised Senator Tichenor, something to the tune of 5 to 1.

She's also a doctor.

I mean, she's incredibly well respected in that district.

She works for University of Louisville Health, and she works in geriatrics.

So she really understands the health care crisis that's affecting seniors in this country right now.

And she's speaking to that.

incredibly hard getting out there, talking about affordability, talking about health careand what she sees every day in the hospital system, talking about the risks that the one big, beautiful bill is going to put Kentuckians, you know, put on theirtheir livelihoods and their health and offering a different perspective.

Lindsey Tichenor, I think, is one of the most extreme Republicans in this record criticizing the Pope.

And, you know, saying that he's in some sort of cabal.

And I think when youhave someone like that, who that is where their interests lie, that is their priority.

They're not talkingabout affordability.

They're not talking about health care.

That person does notneed to be reelected.And Christian, I think, will flip this seat, which will be a win for Democrats.

>> Do you think that Senator Tichenor is at risk of losing her seat in the state House or state Senate?

I'msorry.

>> When Iwas in the House, I always ran as if my seat was at risk.

Because it is it's the people's choice, right.

And you put yourselfout there and you've got to show that you're the right man or woman for the job.

And I think Senator Tichenor has done a great job in she's done a great job for her district.

And I certainly think she's goingto be reelected.

But you, anybody who goes into politics and thinks that it'sa lifetime position is unwise.

And I don't think Senator Tichenor does one minute.

And I don't think she takes anything for granted.

I think she's worked hard.

I think she'll prevail.

>> Also.

SenateDistrict 36, a lot of money being spent in this race, Senator Julie Raque Adams, I believe over $1 million that she's been spending to hang on to her Senate seat.

She's being challenged by Democrat Sarah Cole McIntosh.

Let's talk about miss McIntosh.

And and why she has garnered a lot of support despite nothaving anywhere near the fundraising dollars that Senator Raque Adams has.

>> I think this one is being heavily influenced by the national that Louisville in particular, you're going to see a tremendous amount of just voter angst, the frustration with Trump's policies.

And I think people are voting because of that voting.

And for Sarah Cole McIntosh.

And I think that that's it's a it.

Julie Raque Adams, who is a well-known senator, has been there for a while.

I think she's facing headwinds that that arejust being caused by those above upstream, if you >> Again, do you think Senator Raque Adams is at risk of losing her seat?

She is a well known figure in the General Assembly.

>> Well.

Oh, I don't and, you know, let mejust share with you a quickstory about Senator Adams.

She had a bill for a couple of years that when the Democrats controlled the House, she couldn't get through the House.

And itwas a bill that prevented shock probation cases of DUI, manslaughter, where somebody's driving under the influence would kill somebody else in a motor vehicle accident, and they'd be sentenced to ten, 15 years, and the judge would shock probate him after a year or two.And there were some particular cases that occurred in Louisville that became very important to Senator Adams.

And she had took a couple runs at this bill, but had no luck theHouse when we took over control, Republicans took over control of the House in 2017, she did something extraordinary, and that was she came to me and she said, this billmeans a lot to me.

I've worked on it for years, but I think it has a better chance if you take it, if you take it and you can get it through the house, I know it'll it'll pass easily in the Senate.

was House Bill two two,two of the regular session, 2017.

And, you know, for people who don't see the sausage being made in politics, that's extraordinary for somebody to be so invested in a bill and then be willing to give it to somebody else, right?

So now it's it's my bill.

I got that passed.

We did get it passedthe first time based on Julie's great handing it off, but that that is the type of service that is uncommon.

And I think when people are thinking about who to vote forin that race, I think that tells you all you need toknow about justhow much Julie cares about Kentucky.

>> And can I add to just with Senator Adams, I mean, we're all pretty hyper partizan up here.

I mean, obviously we want our team to win, but Robert hit the nail onthe head.

One thing that you see with Senator Adams is that she's willing to work with anybody if it's going to be good for her district and good for Kentucky.

And she is one of the best.

We see her all the time crossing the aisle trying to get things passed.

And she just represents her district so well.

And again, oneof one of our most effective legislators, and I don't see one reason why we would lose that seat.

>> But Morgan, would you say there's Maybe nationally or here in the state, or is that the new trend where people are neverhappy?

Essentially.

>> That's just the rule of life.

No.

>> But I think particularly right now, there is definitely an anti-incumbent mood.

And I think, Senator Adams, there have been a lot of problematic stories about her recently that have made her more vulnerable.

She had a nonprofit that was really not accepting money from people that were lobbying her and the General Assembly.

That is is an ethics issue.

And it came to light and it caused a lot of negative spotlight on her that I think made that race a lot more interesting and made her a lot more vulnerable.

But in general, when people are facing such an affordability crisis, when they are stressed out every single day about how they'regoing to, you know, make ends meet, and they look at who's in charge and who is furthering some of the policies that they blamefor that, whetherit's in DC or in Frankfort.

I think they have some some opinions about that.

And they want tosee change.

>> Well, hopefully we'll have time to get to some state House races as well.

But we do want to bring attention to the fact that Kentuckians have more on the They'realso voting on a constitutional amendment.

Amendment one looks to place limits on a governor's pardon, powers around election season.

A Northern Kentucky senator has worked for years to get the amendment on the ballot.

Our Emily Prince caught up with them to learnmore about the measure.

>> State Senator Chris McDaniel toured the Commonwealth last month, urging Kentuckians to vote passes, amendment one would limit the governor's power to give last minute pardons.

McDaniel said he saw the need for the change after Governor Matt Bevin gave a slew of pardons back in 2019.

>> Some for crimes as heinous as, rape, murder and many, many others.

>> Bevin issued more than 400 pardons during his final days in office after losing election to Andy Beshear.

Bevin later told The Washington Post he was a believer in second chances.

McDaniel has worked for seven years to get this amendment on the ballot.

So what exactly does it do?

>> What amendment one simply does is from 60 days before a gubernatorial election until the time of the swearing in of anew governor, the power to pardon ceases to voting yes on amendment one would force a governor if they wanted to issue a pardon, to do it more than 60 days before an election.

>> I asked McDaniel what would prevent a governor who is headed out of office for making controversial pardons ahead of that 60 day cutoff?

>> If the governor takes certain actions, then the party has to account at the ballot box.

And I think that the voters would view some of the pardons we sawlast time very unfavorably for the party of the governor.

>> Not everyone is on board with amendment one.

However, state senator and minority Caucus chair Reggie Thomas was the only senator to vote no on thebill during the 2026 legislative session.

He said it's important for the governor to be able to address convictions or other faults of the criminal justice system through pardons, and he said leaders shouldn't pay the price for bevin's decisions.

>> I just think it'swrong.

There'sno reason to do that.

You had one bad apple in Matt Bevin.

You know, Matt Bevin certainly used that power incorrectly.

But you've had a whole host of governors before.

Matt Bevin who, who, who used the pardon humanely.

>> The Lexington Democrat also believes governors must deal with more pressing policy matters in the beginning of their term, and they can give more thought to pardons inthe final days of their role.

For those reasons, Thomas says he'll be casting a no vote on amendment one.

>> I'm urging everyone tovote no on on amendment number one, that the remain with the governor.

>> McDaniel said,amending the state constitution is not something he takes lightly, but he believes amendment one will pass on November 3rd for KET.

I'm Emily Prince.

>> Is that a sentiment that you all echo, that youthink this is a constitutional amendment that will be successful on the ballot thistime?

>> Well, I think it will pass.

I think it should pass.

Senator McDaniels does across the board, and, you know in that story he's been working on it forseven years.

So this whole issue that it's all built around formerGovernor Bevin is afarce.

It's not.

It's because governors historically in Kentucky and unfortunately, most have been Democrat.

That will be changing going forward.

But abuse that pardon power in my view.

And I think in the view of a lot of citizens.And I think, you know, well, they'regoing out the door and there's little way to hold them accountable.

And I think Senator McDaniels amendmenthis work on this is outstanding.

And I think I think it willpass because I think just like we've seen with presidential pardons, Joe Biden, I think pardoned everybody.

Doctor Fauci and everybody else who might have walked through theCapitol at one point or the other, or the white House when he was president.

Citizens don't like that.

Americans don'tlike that.

Kentuckians don'tlike that.

Our our second chances appropriate in some cases, yes, but it shouldn't be done at the 11th hour.

>> Is this really a partizan issue?

Is that how this we're seeing some discussion framing it that way, but is that how you think voters see it?

>> I don't think that voters aregoing to see this as a partizan issue, although I think that the only pardons in Kentucky have come from Matt Bevin.

I think that Steve Beshear used most of his pardon power for victims of domestic violence.

I think Andy Beshearso far has used it to pardon people who helped victims of slavery.

So I think you can see a prettydistinct difference in how those pardon powers were used.

I think if you're trying to protect people from what Matt Bevin did, think that that is that that that is what this part, this constitutional amendment really seemsto be about.

And, you know, I do think it's hard for constitutional amendments to get, you know, you have to spend alot of money to get people aware of them ahead of time.

So I think you'regoing to see more people walking the ballot box, read the question and decide thereabout whether they're going to vote for it or not.

But I do think powers are an important part of, you know, checks and balances within our Constitution, within our government.

And I do think that most governors, especially the most recent Democrats, have used it judiciously and appropriately.

>> You know, it's been my perception that a constitutional amendment might be an afterthought for voters.

You're more worried about the the, the candidates that you're voting for.

But I had a friend tell me yesterday, that's only thing getting her to the polls this election, because she feels I know, and it really did blow me.

And I didn't press her on how she was voting on it.

And I kind of regret that now.

But I didn't want to be quite that nosy.

Okay.

And in the state House races that we alluded to earlier, a lot of eyes on House district 45, Democrat Adam Moore, who is the incumbent, has served, I believe, just his first term in that seat.

He's being challenged by Republican Killian Timoney, who has previously held that seat.

He lost his primary the last time around,and now his seat once again.I've heard some people describe these candidates asvery similar.

Is that how you all see it?

And who do you think will prevail tomorrow?

Miss Crosby, I'll ask you.

>> Yeah.

I don't.

>> See them as similar.

Killian Timoney did a great job as a state representative.

It was it was a crazy primary that year.

He ran against a guy, for heaven's sake, whose name was Thomas Jefferson.I mean, that's pretty he he fought for lower taxes.

I mean, he works in the Fayette County Public Schools.

He just is very representative of that district.

To say that they're similar for somebody like Killian, who's fought against raising taxes against a guy who, heaven forbid, wanted to tax our Amazon packages.

I see no similarities inthose two.

And I thinkthat the people of Jessamine and Fayette County are going to vote for tomorrow.

>> Do you think Adam Moore will keep his seat?

>> I do, and interestingly enough, we talked about the primary that Killian lost in last cycle.

One of the reasons he lost is because he hada Liberty Challenger, and that there were a lot of outside groups pouring money into that race, attacking Killian for his support of trans youth, which is interesting because Republicans love that talking point.

They against Democrats.

But it was really Killian who was on record as supporting trans youth.

So it's interesting now to see kind of Republicans trying to cover up and goback to bat for their their candidate.

Adam's been a fantastic legislator.

He is right now leading the way against data centers, fighting really hard to make sure they don'ttakeadvantage of Kentucky taxpayers or Kentucky communities.

He's He's a dad.

He's an entrepreneur and local business owner.

I think not only will he win reelection, but it will be by a large margin.

And I think you'll see that he's a real rising star in the Democratic Party.

>> Another House race to watch 95.

It's an open seat.

Ashley Tackett Lafferty, a Democrat not seeking reelection.

Republican Tanner Hesterberg going up against Democrat Johnny Ray Turner, who is a former name recognition there.

What are your thoughts on this race?

Robert.

>> I think Tanner's got it, and I think he's going to do a great job.

He's a super smart guyand he's working really hard.

I think folks know why Senator Turner was nolonger Senator Turner.

And I think they'll have a pretty easy choice there in House district 95.

>> Your thoughts from the Democratic perspective, do you think could win this House race?

>> I think Johnny RayTurner will win thisHouse race.

I think one you know, he has served that district or parts of that district for long periods of time.

And people do like him and did like him.

I think it is important to note that, especially what's going on in Alaska right now, that the only reason he was defeated was because the Republicans ran someone with the exact same name as Johnny Ray Turner against him.

And yes, he did come slightly short at that point.

But I think that this district is really I think that Johnny Ray has it.

He's working hard.

People like him.

He was a former coach.

You know, he is a good a good citizen of that area.

And I think he'll be successful.

>> Less than a minute left.

Any other racesthat are your radar tomorrow?

>> House district 31 Democrats lost it by about 300 votes in 2024.

Kamala Harris won that district.

I thinkthat will be aflip for Democrats.

Kamala also won House district 48, and I think that will be another flip for Democrats.

Andwe'll start making our way towards winning back a majority in the Kentucky State House.

>> Are those races thatyou all thinkRepublicans are at of losingtheir seats?

>> Again, as we talked about, right?

When yourun, you're at risk.But I don't see really any viable opportunity for the Democrats there.

>> Well, of course, this is all speculation.

And this time tomorrow night, perhaps we'll be getting some answers.

We certainly hope that you'll tune in to our electioncoverage tomorrow evening, beginning at seven six central, right here on KET.

Many, many thanks to our wonderful panel.

We appreciate you so much.

That's it for us.

We hope you have a good evening.